【Depth】from The Analysis Of The Relationship Between The Supply And Demand Of Copper Clad

Prices of raw materials rose sharply on the copper clad laminates, most manufacturers of leading copper clad laminates has achieved high premium. Sinolink securities through checking, found that prices will eventually bring three results, which inevitably premium, premium and lifting leading profitability, deciding factor is the change of supply and demand of premium (including decision whether the premium and premium persistent) Leading earnings increase, after deciding factor is the relative bargaining power, so the price quotation is to grasp the key factors in the supply and demand relations and the relative bargaining power.

    Why achieve premium now - supply and demand gap, inventory demand increasing mismatch. From the demand perspective, copper clad demand is expected to grow 9.3% throughout the year, and 2021 q1 laptops, household appliances, mobile phones, and other fields has presented a higher than the growth in the year and therefore 2021 q1 excess demand release, plus 2021 q1 facing downstream fill the safety stock inventory requirements, so the 2021 q1 demand; From the perspective of supply, we see the mainstream copper-clad r.p. panel makers expansion rate of only 6.7%, less than the demand growth rate, and level displacement current demand expansion direction at the same time, high prices of raw materials, the manufacturer production capacity does not constitute a valid capacity, thus resulting in the tight supply and demand.

    Small double a H e e, this take some 1 to total AD.Premium how sustainable - 2021 q2 premium, 2021 h2 premium or narrowing. Sinolink securities that still can continue in the second quarter of premium, but the second half of the year there will be pressure, the reason as below：

 1) 2021 Q2 demand basic continues, 2021 H2 pressure. Combined with changes in consumer demand and inventory levels, is expected to 2021 Q2 accounted for 41% of the application of high growth, increase the application of 14%, the application of stable accounted for 24%, with the application of inventory pressure accounted for 21%, while 2021 compared to the boom of Q2 2021 Q1 is weak, but still maintain the boom of high as a whole. Outlook 2021 H2, the application of high growth (24%), the application of growth (14%), the application of stable accounted for 45%, with the demand of inventory pressure accounted for 17% , visible 2021 H2 significantly reduce consumer demand growth plates, plus 2021 Q1 unique demand for safety stock gradually disappear, so overall 2021 H2 demand pressure.

 2) in the second half part of the supply was released, the whole power supply is still limited. Mainstream copper clad manufacturers this year new expansion can mostly in the second half of this year, loose and raw material price is expected to release a portion of small manufacturers production capacity, but league alum factory fire xin pu, high-frequency high-speed demand start as scheduled extrusion capacity effectively curb supply force release, so overall, this year the supply power is still nervous.

So with supply and demand to see sinolink securities believe Q2 premium continues, but the second half of the year there will be a certain pressure.

The relative bargaining power still can lift the profitability. From the Angle of concentration, concentration of the copper clad laminates is still relatively PCB, higher raw material prices increase copper clad and PCB concentration difference; From the point of view of expanding production, since this year has passed the IPO and will have been submitted to the IPO of PCB project total reached 11.3 billion yuan, strength of financing has been since 2017 and a massive expansion of production, visible PCB expansion radical, thereby pushing up the scarcity of copper clad. So two comprehensively, copper clad relative bargaining power is high, the leader can uplift profitability after the price quotation.

一:Mismatch between supply and demand is at a premium

Requirements: 1) superposition of consumer demand inventory requirements to hot

2) supply: expansion rate + effective enough capacity to supply tension

    Summary of view, from the perspective of historical checking sinolink securities that decision sheet can be implemented in the price quotation of premium factors include two aspects, namely the supply and demand relationship and the relative bargaining power, which determine need to grasp the key factors of supply and demand relationship is supply and demand, consumer demand and inventory requirements) capacity expansion and capacity effectiveness (strict) , the judgment of whether the relative bargaining power is upstream and downstream industry concentration and expansion by contrast.