[concerns] Copper Prices In The Second Quarter May Reach A High Point In The Year

   Copper prices affected since highs on this week, a currently adjustment range.

      A few days ago, copper prices hit a decade to 78270 yuan/ton, on May 14, close to 74500 yuan/ton. Shanghai nonferrous steel the financial researcher lisa said to the first financial journalist analysis, state council executive meeting request to respond effectively to the commodity prices rising too fast and its knock-on effects. April CPI rose 4.2% in the United States, rose 0.8%, significantly more than market expectations, investors concern about high inflation. Copper prices affected since highs this week, a currently adjustment range.

       The rise in commodity mainly based on macro logic, the current supply and demand at each end of the performance is not enough to explain the rise so crazy. Mysteel spot TC (disposal) of copper concentrate recently recovered from the bottom and gradually ease of supply-side interference, Chinese copper stocks continue to accumulate, the downstream consumer sentiment cautious under high copper prices.

      The short term, Europe and the United States and other major economies in the currency and vaccination of steady recovery, driven by economic activity of liquidity and the economic recovery continues to provide support for copper prices, is expected to high and volatile trade in the short term, are not under the background of tightening in liquidity, subsequent copper prices continue upward remains to be further support by the fundamentals, June is expected to run copper prices are still up space.

        In the second half of this year, with the repair of the economy, global monetary policy tightening may exist, the dollar liquidity imported inflation, emerging economies are facing economic contraction stress, Brazil, Turkey, Russia has announced to raise interest rates. In the developed countries, biden's stimulus will continue to push the United States in 2021 the economy starts to recover, increasing inflationary pressures, fiscal and monetary policy easing there exit may in advance. It is larger for copper downside risk.

091At the same time, the second half of the fundamentals, the influence of copper concentrate and the copper scrap supply increase will gradually appear, so prices are likely reached a peak of the year in the second quarter, a turning point will appear at the same time, there may be some in the second half of the copper prices fell back.